What's Working ranks variants by shrunk rate not raw conversion rate

The What's Working panel in the Spectare admin shows you which content variants are performing across your audiences and funnel stages. The order in which variants appear has changed in a way that makes the ranking more trustworthy at every library size.

Previously, variants were ranked by their raw conversion rate, which meant a variant with two conversions from forty impressions could sit above one with thirty conversions from eight hundred impressions simply because its observed rate was higher. That is statistically misleading and practically harmful when your library contains a mix of well-travelled variants and newer ones still gathering data.

Variants are now ranked by their empirical-Bayes shrunk rate. A Beta prior is fitted from your organisation's own windowed evidence using method-of-moments, and each variant is ranked by its posterior mean under that prior. Thin evidence is pulled toward the organisation average rather than allowed to float on a lucky sample. The raw conversion rate and raw counts are still shown in the display, so you can see both the honest rank and the underlying numbers.

This change applies to the What's Working panel, the Confidence page ordering, and the winning-arrangement context that is fed to the AI when it assembles a personalised page. Every ranking surface in your admin now reflects the same statistically grounded order.